The Centre for Modelling & Simulation (CFMS) will be hosting a webinar with the Uncertainty Quantification & Management (UQ&M) Special Interest Group. The start of a webinar series delivered by the UQ&M SIG Group, two of the webinars will be held on 20th May 2016, commencing at 10.00 hours.
The webinars are designed to complement the Use Case collection and Capability Map the SIG is collecting, provide resources for those currently utilising / wishing to utilise UQ&M analyses. The inaugural webinars will be given by Prof. Anthony O'Hagan, Emeritus Professor of Statistics, and Dr. Francesco Montomoli, Senior Lecturer at Imperial College London. Prof. O'Hagan will speak on Quantifying Input Uncertainty, with particular emphasis on elicitation of expert opinion, and Dr. Montomoli will speak on way to approach the Uncertainty and Blades use case, found here.
The UQ&M Group set up by Innovate UK and The KTN exists to create a group to assess, promote and support a UK capability in the field of uncertainty quantification and management in high value manufacturing. The group provides a forum for discussion and lists a number of use cases. These are providing an avenue for further discovery and progression, where practitioners in UQ&M can demonstrate exactly what impact it is having on their organisation. The sectors where UQ&M is initially most predominant are automotive, aerospace, renewable and nuclear though the group is growing. The use of real industrial examples from across sectors is a cornerstone of the UQ&M SIG activity to promote and share best practise.
Sam Paice, Chief Operating Officer, CFMS commented, “UQ&M is fast becoming one of the most debated topics in industry. Our vision is to work with organisations to drive a practical revolution in engineering design capability. What will be important in growing the required skill sets are intermediary organisations, who can facilitate and identify best practice and the best ways to incorporate UQ&M into their tools.”
For further information and to register for the webinars, visit the event web page here. The first webinar, Quantifying Input Uncertainty will commence at 10.00, followed by the second webinar Uncertainty and Blades at 11.00. For further information about the UQ&M SIG Group or to propose further webinar topics visit the UQ&M SIG web portal or contact Dr Matt Butchers.
Abstract -Quantifying Input Uncertainty
There are three steps to quantifying uncertainty in the outputs of a model. The one that has been most studied in UQ&M is to propagate input uncertainties through the model. The least studied step is to account for computational uncertainties, arising from deficiencies in the computational model itself, errors and inaccuracies in computing the outputs, and errors and inaccuracies in propagation. This presentation concerns the vital first step, which is to quantify uncertainty in the model inputs, in the form of probability distributions. After briefly surveying the relevant statistical tools, I will concentrate on the elicitation of expert judgements using an elicitation protocol designed to minimise bias and errors of judgement.
Abstract - Uncertainty and Blades
The seminar will show some recent applications of Non-Intrusive Polynomial Chaos (NIPC) techniques for Uncertainty Quantification. NIPC are becoming popular because being non intrusive can use existing solvers (for example computational fluid dynamics codes) as black boxes. This is a critical aspect in aeronautics were the underlying codes have been validated for many years and intrusive methods are less likely to be developed. However the same principle applies to other fields such as nuclear engineering where the codes have required several years of development. It will be shown the impact of input uncertainties approximation on the output results and how this affects the level of confidence of the predictions. A more relevant industrial case will be also shown to prove how UQ can give a false sense of confidence in the results. The goal is to promote a discussion in the UK community on visualization and assessment of UQ.
The Centre for Modelling & Simulation (CFMS) is proud to be a growing, independent and not-for-profit organisation that specialises in high value design capability. We promote advanced modelling and simulation, underpinned by HPC, pushing the boundaries of technology.
Through our exceptional, collaborative, virtual and physical facility, we enable the adoption and acceleration of new technologies for advanced modelling and simulation, while improving learning and developing awareness of state-of-the-art.Engaging with organisations large and small, we help to provide access to the right tools, resources, skills and technologies, resulting in increased productivity and faster, more informed decision-making.
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Quantifying Input Uncertainty - Prof. Anthony O'Hagan, Emeritus Professor of Statistics
Uncertainty and Blades - Dr. Francesco Montomoli, Senior Lecturer at Imperial College London