Hosted at The Centre for Modelling & Simulation (CFMS), the UQ&M SIG Group have released a webinar series designed to complement the Use Case collection and Capability Map the SIG is collecting, provide resources for those currently utilising / wishing to utilise UQ&M analyses.
There are three steps to quantifying uncertainty in the outputs of a model. The one that has been most studied in UQ&M is to propagate input uncertainties through the model. The least studied step is to account for computational uncertainties, arising from deficiencies in the computational model itself, errors and inaccuracies in computing the outputs, and errors and inaccuracies in propagation. This presentation concerns the vital first step, which is to quantify uncertainty in the model inputs, in the form of probability distributions. After briefly surveying the relevant statistical tools, the presentation concentrates on the elicitation of expert judgements using an elicitation protocol designed to minimise bias and errors of judgement. To view the webinar, click here.
The webinar will show some recent applications of Non-Intrusive Polynomial Chaos (NIPC) techniques for Uncertainty Quantification. NIPC are becoming popular because being non intrusive can use existing solvers (for example computational fluid dynamics codes) as black boxes. This is a critical aspect in aeronautics where the underlying codes have been validated for many years and intrusive methods are less likely to be developed. However the same principle applies to other fields such as nuclear engineering where the codes have required several years of development. It will be shown the impact of input uncertainties approximation on the output results and how this affects the level of confidence of the predictions. A more relevant industrial case will be also shown to prove how UQ can give a false sense of confidence in the results. The goal is to promote a discussion in the UK community on visualization and assessment of UQ. To view the webinar, click here.
The UQ&M Group set up by Innovate UK and The KTN exists to create a group to assess, promote and support a UK capability in the field of uncertainty quantification and management in high value manufacturing. The group provides a forum for discussion and lists a number of use cases. These are providing an avenue for further discovery and progression, where practitioners in UQ&M can demonstrate exactly what impact it is having on their organisation. The sectors where UQ&M is initially most predominant are automotive, aerospace, renewable and nuclear though the group is growing. The use of real industrial examples from across sectors is a cornerstone of the UQ&M SIG activity to promote and share best practise.
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