Improving Disruption Planning for a Rail Operator
Challenge
The ability of the rail transport network to maintain an effective service during disruption events has never been more important. Increased adverse weather events, network asset failures and industrial action are all testing the ability of Train Operating Companies (TOCs) and Network Rail to withstand and recover from these unexpected events.
No single solution will ever be able to completely solve the challenges of transport delays and cancellations. With the estimated cost to the UK economy approaching £1 billion, action and innovation are essential.
The fragmented nature of the rail system combined with a significant number of interdependencies complicates any solution. Delays on a single section of the track can propagate throughout the network, causing inconvenience for the travelling public and additional stress for the train crews and station teams. The financial implications are growing, with compensation paid out totalling more than £150 million in 2024/2025.
Solution
We've been working closely with the operational and performance teas at Avanti West Coast to support operations on the Anglo-Scot and North Wales routes. Utilising simulation technology, combined with modern high performance compute, we've created a tool that aids planners in modelling an optimised approach to service restoration in a fraction of the time that traditional planning would take.
This technology advancement is being used to support routes where severe weather often impacts operations. The teams have flexible access through any platform that supports a web browser, helping to minimise the impact on their operations.
By simply specifying the location of the disruption, speed limits and duration of the delay, the tool is able to model tens of thousands of potential options and recommend the best course of action to the planning team. The inclusion of stock and crew availability ensures that any scenario recommended by the tool is a viable timetable that can be run by the operator.
Benefit
Technology breakthroughs and cross-industry innovation are key to driving modernisation and performance improvements across the transport network. The tool has allowed Avanti's planners to model disruption scenarios in minutes, gaining a better understanding of the impact on their network. This work would have previously taken days.
More services are able to run during disruption, amended timetables can be published sooner to the travelling public, allowing them to plan accordingly and normal network operations can be resumed at a faster pace.
Andy Mellors, Managing Director at Avanti West Coast, said: "Whilst timetable optimisation isn't a new concept, I'm proud Avanti West Coast is leading the transport industry with this innovative technology that can help us to deliver a better service for customers when things don't go as planned. Innovation can play a key role in shaping the future of the West Coast, as well as the wider rail industry. By working with the Centre for Modelling and Simulation on this ground-breaking tool, we have the means to make a massive difference in how the rail industry responds to unplanned disruption and keeps customers moving."
